🏦 San Francisco Mortgage Affordability Calculator

SF Housing Prices by Property Type

Single-Family Homes

San Francisco single-family homes hit a median sale price of $1.65 million in February 2026, a 16.2% year-over-year increase. Entry-level single-family homes in the Outer Sunset, Excelsior, and Visitacion Valley start around $1.1 million. Neighborhoods like Pacific Heights, Noe Valley, and the Marina routinely see sales above $3 million. Detached homes represent a shrinking share of available inventory, making competition fierce.

Condos: The More Accessible Path

Condos posted a median of roughly $1.02 million in early 2026, with strong 9.7% annual growth. SoMa and Mission Bay lead new condo development, with one-bedrooms starting around $700,000 and two-bedrooms from $1 million. The condo market offers the most realistic entry point for single buyers or couples without generational wealth. However, HOA fees of $500 to $1,200 per month reduce effective purchasing power substantially.

TICs: The Budget Alternative

Tenancy in Common (TIC) units trade at 10-20% below comparable condos because they involve shared financing with other owners. If one co-owner defaults, all owners bear risk. TIC-to-condo conversions are limited by city regulation, making resale harder. For buyers stretching to enter the market, TICs offer a path, but the financing complications and lower appreciation potential should factor into any affordability calculation.

Prop 13 and the Property Tax Advantage

How It Works for New Buyers

Under Proposition 13, property is reassessed to full market value at purchase, then annual increases are capped at 2% or inflation, whichever is lower. The base tax rate is 1%, plus voter-approved bonds and special assessments that push effective rates to approximately 1.15-1.20% in San Francisco. On a $1.2 million condo, expect roughly $14,000 in annual property taxes during year one.

The Long-Term Payoff

Prop 13's true value emerges over time. After 15-20 years of 2% annual caps while market values appreciate 3-5% annually, longtime homeowners can see effective rates drop to 0.3-0.5% of current market value. This creates a significant incentive to buy and hold. A home purchased for $1 million in 2010 may now be worth $1.8 million but is taxed on an assessed value of roughly $1.3 million, saving the owner $5,000+ annually compared to reassessment.

Supplemental Tax Bills

New buyers receive supplemental tax bills in the first year, covering the difference between the previous assessed value and the new purchase price, prorated from the sale date to end of fiscal year. On a $1.5 million purchase where the previous assessment was $800,000, this one-time supplemental bill can exceed $8,000. Budget for this separately from your regular property tax escrow.

Down Payment Assistance: DALP and BMR Programs

DALP: Up to $500,000 in Assistance

San Francisco's Downpayment Assistance Loan Program (DALP) is among the most generous in the nation, offering up to $500,000 toward market-rate purchases. The loan requires no monthly payments and is repaid upon sale, transfer, or refinance. Eligibility caps at 200% of Area Median Income. Applications open in annual cycles with priority for educators and first responders. Competition is intense — the program serves a limited number of buyers each year. DALP can be layered with other MOHCD programs for additional support.

Below Market Rate (BMR) Lottery

San Francisco requires developers to set aside 12-25% of new units as Below Market Rate housing. BMR condos sell at 40-60% of market price, allocated by lottery to income-qualified buyers. A BMR unit priced at $400,000 in a building where market units sell for $900,000 represents extraordinary value, but resale restrictions cap appreciation and buyers must sell back through the program. Wait times can stretch years, but for patient buyers with qualifying income, BMR offers the clearest path to ownership in San Francisco.

The Tech Economy: Boom, Bust, and AI

Layoffs and Market Softening

San Francisco's tech employment dropped roughly 14% from its 2022 peak through late 2025, with over 40,000 Bay Area tech workers laid off in 2025 alone. Meta, Amazon, and Pinterest announced additional cuts in early 2026. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in January 2026. For mortgage qualification, lenders scrutinize tech industry applicants more carefully, particularly those with heavy RSU-based compensation. Document at least two years of vesting history to count stock compensation toward qualifying income.

AI Salaries and the New Money

While traditional tech sheds jobs, AI companies are hiring aggressively. AI engineering roles in SF command $300,000 to $500,000+ in total compensation. However, as UC Berkeley economist Enrico Moretti notes, AI hiring is not enough to offset broader tech losses. The income bifurcation is widening: AI workers can comfortably afford $2 million homes, while mid-level product managers face the same affordability squeeze as everyone else. Use our San Francisco Mortgage Affordability Calculator to model scenarios across different income levels.

Earthquake Insurance: The SF-Specific Cost

Standard homeowners policies exclude earthquake damage. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) offers policies with deductibles of 5% to 25% of coverage. Premiums depend on home age, foundation type, proximity to fault lines, and construction materials. For a typical San Francisco home, annual earthquake insurance runs $2,000 to $5,000, with a 6.8% rate increase effective in 2025.

Homes built before 1980 on raised foundations without seismic retrofitting face the highest premiums. With the San Andreas Fault running through the western edge of the city and the Hayward Fault across the bay, seismic risk is not theoretical. Factor earthquake insurance into your monthly affordability calculation even though it is not legally required.

Neighborhood Affordability Spectrum

Entry-Level Neighborhoods

The Outer Sunset, Outer Richmond, Excelsior, Bayview, and Visitacion Valley represent SF's most accessible neighborhoods. Single-family homes start around $1.1 million, and condos can be found below $700,000. These neighborhoods offer proximity to parks, ocean access (Outer Sunset/Richmond), and improving transit connections. Bayview has seen significant new development, though prices are rising as the neighborhood gentrifies.

Mid-Range Options

Inner Sunset, Glen Park, Bernal Heights, and the Inner Richmond sit in the $1.3 to $1.8 million range for single-family homes. These walkable neighborhoods offer excellent dining, schools, and transit access. For dual-income tech households earning $250,000 to $350,000 combined, these neighborhoods are achievable with 20% down and moderate debt loads. Use our California Mortgage Affordability Calculator to compare SF with broader state benchmarks.

The Rent-vs.-Buy Calculation in SF

Break-Even Timeline

In San Francisco, the break-even point for buying versus renting stretches to 7-10+ years depending on property type and neighborhood. High closing costs (transfer taxes, lender fees), earthquake insurance, and HOA fees push the break-even further than in most markets. A two-bedroom condo renting for $4,500 per month competes against approximately $7,500 in monthly ownership costs at current prices and rates. Only after 8-10 years of appreciation and principal paydown does ownership begin to outperform renting financially.

When Buying Makes Sense

The strongest case for buying in SF is the Prop 13 tax lock. Every year you rent, you defer locking in a tax basis that grows only 2% annually while market values appreciate faster. After 15 years, this divergence saves $5,000 to $10,000 per year. If you plan to stay 10+ years and your income supports the payments, buying becomes compelling despite the high entry cost. If your timeline is under seven years, renting almost always wins.

Bay Area Alternatives: Commute-Accessible Suburbs

East Bay via BART

Oakland's median single-family home price sits around $920,000, roughly 45% below San Francisco. The BART ride from 12th Street Oakland to Embarcadero takes 10 minutes. San Leandro ($881,500 median) and Concord ($750,000) offer even deeper discounts with 25- to 40-minute BART commutes. Buyers who work in SF's Financial District or SoMa can stretch purchasing power 40-60% by living in the East Bay without sacrificing reasonable commute times.

Peninsula and South Bay via Caltrain

For workers commuting south to Silicon Valley, Caltrain connects SF to Palo Alto, Mountain View, and San Jose. South San Francisco and Daly City offer condos in the $600,000 to $800,000 range with Caltrain and BART access. Farther south, San Mateo and Redwood City provide more space in the $1.1 to $1.5 million range. Consider total commute cost: BART and Caltrain monthly passes run $100 to $200, far below car ownership costs.

Condo HOA Fees and Special Assessments

SF condo HOA fees typically range from $500 to $1,200 per month, covering building insurance, water, garbage, common area maintenance, and sometimes earthquake insurance. Lenders count HOA fees against your debt-to-income ratio, directly reducing how much mortgage you qualify for. A $900 monthly HOA fee reduces purchasing power by roughly $140,000 at current rates. Before committing, review the building's reserve study and recent special assessment history. Buildings with deferred maintenance can levy one-time assessments of $10,000 to $50,000+ per unit for roof replacement, seismic retrofitting, or elevator repairs. Use our San Francisco Mortgage Calculator to model monthly payments including HOA fees.

SF Closing Costs and Transfer Taxes

City and County Transfer Tax

San Francisco imposes a graduated real property transfer tax that increases with purchase price. Properties under $250,000 pay 0.68%, but the rate climbs to 0.75% for $250,000 to $999,999, and 2.25% for properties between $1 million and $5 million. On a $1.5 million purchase, the transfer tax alone is $33,750. Above $10 million, the rate reaches 6%. Traditionally the seller pays transfer tax in SF, but this is negotiable and can shift in buyer-friendly conditions.

Total Buyer Closing Costs

Beyond transfer taxes, SF buyers face title insurance ($3,000 to $6,000), escrow fees ($2,000 to $3,000), lender origination and appraisal fees ($2,000 to $4,000), and mandatory city inspections. Total buyer closing costs typically run 1.5% to 3% of purchase price, or $15,000 to $45,000 on a million-dollar-plus purchase. For new-construction condos, developers may charge additional fees for capital contributions to the HOA reserve fund. Factor these costs into your savings target alongside the down payment — many first-time buyers underestimate the cash needed to close.

Remote Work and the SF Calculus

The Hybrid Commute Equation

Post-pandemic remote and hybrid work policies have permanently altered SF's housing math. Workers commuting to downtown offices only two or three days per week can tolerate longer commutes, making East Bay and Peninsula suburbs more viable. A buyer who works from home three days per week might accept a 50-minute BART commute from Walnut Creek ($870,000 median) rather than paying $1.5 million+ in SF. The savings of $600,000+ translate to significantly lower monthly payments, even accounting for commute costs. For fully remote workers, the question shifts from "can I afford SF" to "should I live here at all" — with many opting for Sacramento, Portland, or Austin where equivalent homes cost a third of SF prices.

Affordability Scenario: $200,000 Household Income

At $200,000 combined income (realistic for a dual-income professional household in SF), 6.19% rate, 20% down, and 1.18% effective property tax:

• Maximum affordable home: Approximately $780,000 based on the 28% front-end ratio.
• What this buys: A one-bedroom condo in SoMa, a studio or small one-bedroom in the Inner Sunset, or a TIC unit in various neighborhoods.
• With DALP ($500,000): Effective purchasing power could reach $1.1 million+, opening two-bedroom condos in more neighborhoods. However, DALP is competitive and not guaranteed.
• The gap: Even at $200,000, a household falls short of the $1.53 million median by nearly $750,000. This is why 43% of SF buyers pay all cash and dual-income couples with combined income above $350,000 dominate the single-family market.